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<rss version="2.0"><channel><title>Legesi.xyz — Writing and Research</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/</link><description>Independent writing, research and analysis by Kenneth S. Legesi</description><language>en</language><item><title>Quickmart IPO: What Is a Share Really Worth at KES 7.50?</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/research/quickmart-ipo-investment-analysis/full-report/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/research/quickmart-ipo-investment-analysis/full-report/</guid><description>Independent assessment of Quickmart's IPO valuation, cash flows, lease economics and margin of safety.</description><pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO — Independent Buy-Side Research</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/research/dangote-refinery-ipo-investment-analysis/full-report/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/research/dangote-refinery-ipo-investment-analysis/full-report/</guid><description>Initial valuation, funding, governance and downside assessment of the proposed refinery IPO.</description><pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Quickmart IPO: What Is a Share Really Worth at KES 7.50?</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/quickmart-ipo-what-is-a-share-really/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/quickmart-ipo-what-is-a-share-really/</guid><description>A good business is not necessarily a good investment at any price. Examining Quickmart’s earnings, cash flows, comparables and intrinsic value to assess if the IPO offers investors a margin of safety</description><pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The Gem Inside the Rump</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-gem-inside-the-rump/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-gem-inside-the-rump/</guid><description>Why some public companies secretly behave like venture capital funds</description><pubDate>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Finding Venture Capital Returns in Public Markets</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/before-the-gem-why-this-series-exists/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/before-the-gem-why-this-series-exists/</guid><description>Series Introduction: Why this Series Exists</description><pubDate>Sat, 22 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Can Pavlov and Skinner Help Us Find Better Investments?</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/can-pavlov-and-skinner-help-us-find/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/can-pavlov-and-skinner-help-us-find/</guid><description>Exploring behavioural conditioning as a screen for identifying economic moats in listed companies</description><pubDate>Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The Great Arbitrage</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-great-arbitrage/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-great-arbitrage/</guid><description>Buying Time When the “Fast Clock” Panics</description><pubDate>Sun, 02 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Ergodicity</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/ergodicity/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/ergodicity/</guid><description>Why the “Average” Investor Is a Myth — and Why Your Survival Is the Only Statistic That Matters</description><pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The Frontier Acceleration</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-frontier-acceleration/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-frontier-acceleration/</guid><description>Leapfrogging and the Super-Linear Metabolism of Uganda</description><pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>1.5 Billion Heartbeats</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/15-billion-heartbeats/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/15-billion-heartbeats/</guid><description>The Biological Scaling Laws of Money and Why Corporations Die</description><pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The AI Bubble: Why Manias Never Really Die (Part 4)</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-ai-bubble-why-manias-never-really-3b8/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-ai-bubble-why-manias-never-really-3b8/</guid><description>How to size a portfolio for survival of the AI Bubble; What survival looks like and what it costs</description><pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The AI Bubble, Why Manias Never Really Die (Part 3): Three Red Lights</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-ai-bubble-why-manias-never-really-582/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-ai-bubble-why-manias-never-really-582/</guid><description>Subtitle: The Survival Directive has been activated. Here is what the warning lights are saying in April 2026, and what to do about it.</description><pubDate>Thu, 30 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The Unified Theory of Investing: The Illusion of the Clock</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-unified-theory-of-investing-the/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-unified-theory-of-investing-the/</guid><description>Why Your Time Horizon Warps the Fabric of Risk</description><pubDate>Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The AI Awakening: A Look Back at 2025 and Navigating the Embodied Future of 2026</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-ai-awakening-a-look-back-at-2025/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-ai-awakening-a-look-back-at-2025/</guid><description>I compiled this at the end of 2025, tracking to see how 2026 pans out</description><pubDate>Sun, 22 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>How to Make Africa a $100 Billion Tradeable Asset Class</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/how-to-make-africa-a-100-billion/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/how-to-make-africa-a-100-billion/</guid><description>Originally published on Substack.</description><pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Tail Risk: The Losses That Don’t Show Up in Your Models</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/tail-risk-the-losses-that-dont-show/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/tail-risk-the-losses-that-dont-show/</guid><description>The case for investing in frontier and emerging markets</description><pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>How I Turned Macro Outlooks into ETF Portfolios and How They Performed by Year-End 2025</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/how-i-turned-macro-outlooks-into/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/how-i-turned-macro-outlooks-into/</guid><description>Originally published on Substack.</description><pubDate>Sat, 03 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The AI Bubble: Why Manias Never Really Die (Part 2)</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-ai-bubble-why-manias-never-really-3c7/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-ai-bubble-why-manias-never-really-3c7/</guid><description>How disciplined investors survive the world’s most expensive optimism.</description><pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>When every man builds his own ark, civilization drowns</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/when-every-man-builds-his-own-ark/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/when-every-man-builds-his-own-ark/</guid><description>The Tragedy of the Commons</description><pubDate>Mon, 03 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The AI Bubble: Why Manias Never Really Die (Part 1)</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-ai-bubble-why-manias-never-really/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-ai-bubble-why-manias-never-really/</guid><description>From the railway boom to the AI revolution; how markets finance progress, lose their minds and find their footing again.</description><pubDate>Sun, 12 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Goat Farming or Goat Ponzi?</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/goat-farming-or-goat-ponzi-investors/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/goat-farming-or-goat-ponzi-investors/</guid><description>Investors Should Always Ask the Herd Questions</description><pubDate>Sun, 12 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>I Hope This Helps Someone Today: How to Safely Hold Your Bitcoin</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/i-hope-this-helps-someone-today-how/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/i-hope-this-helps-someone-today-how/</guid><description>Originally published on Substack.</description><pubDate>Fri, 10 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Why Your Brain Is Your Worst Investment Enemy</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/why-your-brain-is-your-worst-investment/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/why-your-brain-is-your-worst-investment/</guid><description>How psychological biases sabotage your portfolio, and what to do about it</description><pubDate>Tue, 23 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Macro-Themed Portfolios with ChatGPT: 2025 ETF Performance (as at Aug 8, 2025)</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/macro-themed-portfolios-with-chatgpt/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/macro-themed-portfolios-with-chatgpt/</guid><description>Originally published on Substack.</description><pubDate>Fri, 05 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Why MTN Uganda Is a Free Call Option on Fintech’s Future</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/why-mtn-uganda-is-a-free-call-option/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/why-mtn-uganda-is-a-free-call-option/</guid><description>Originally published on Substack.</description><pubDate>Sat, 26 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Optionality and the Investor’s Mindset: Part 2, What's Umeme's Probability of Winning the Arbitration?</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/optionality-and-the-investors-mindset-7f5/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/optionality-and-the-investors-mindset-7f5/</guid><description>Originally published on Substack.</description><pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Optionality and the Investor’s Mindset: Part 1, Lessons from Umeme</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/optionality-and-the-investors-mindset/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/optionality-and-the-investors-mindset/</guid><description>Lessons in risk reward and why small decisions today can shape outsized outcomes tomorrow</description><pubDate>Thu, 19 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The Illusion of Ownership: What MTN Uganda’s MoMo Restructure Means for Investors</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-illusion-of-ownership-what-mtn/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-illusion-of-ownership-what-mtn/</guid><description>A Case Study in Risk, Rights, and Shareholder Value in Africa’s Capital Markets</description><pubDate>Mon, 16 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Unlocking Climate Finance for East Africa</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/unlocking-climate-finance-for-east/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/unlocking-climate-finance-for-east/</guid><description>Bridging the Gap Between Policy and Action</description><pubDate>Wed, 28 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Risk is Personal, but Also a Privilege</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/risk-is-personal-but-also-a-privilege/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/risk-is-personal-but-also-a-privilege/</guid><description>The Real Cost of Chasing Returns</description><pubDate>Mon, 19 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The Untold Story behind Africa’s Most Valuable Fintech Spinout</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-untold-story-behind-africas-most/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-untold-story-behind-africas-most/</guid><description>Inside Africa’s quiet $5.2 Billion fintech opportunity and the mispricing that frontier markets can’t see</description><pubDate>Wed, 07 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>As a Stanbic Shareholder, Here’s What I’m Seeing in Uganda’s Banking Sector (2024)</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/as-a-stanbic-shareholder-heres-what/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/as-a-stanbic-shareholder-heres-what/</guid><description>This is not investment advice!</description><pubDate>Mon, 21 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>You Don’t Need to Buy Land Now. You Just Need the Option.</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/you-dont-need-to-buy-land-now-you/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/you-dont-need-to-buy-land-now-you/</guid><description>Why land options could unlock housing, roads, energy and urban growth—if we use them right.</description><pubDate>Sat, 19 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The Ghosts of Drawdowns Past, Present, and Yet to Come</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-ghosts-of-drawdowns-past-present/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-ghosts-of-drawdowns-past-present/</guid><description>Understanding Investment Risk Through a Dickensian Lens</description><pubDate>Sat, 19 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Nobody Talks About This Path to Homeownership in Africa — But It Could Change Everything</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/nobody-talks-about-this-path-to-homeownership/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/nobody-talks-about-this-path-to-homeownership/</guid><description>How to turn renters into owners</description><pubDate>Fri, 18 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Solar Investment in Uganda: Policies, Incentives, and Market Response</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/solar-investment-in-uganda-policies/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/solar-investment-in-uganda-policies/</guid><description>Originally published on Substack.</description><pubDate>Fri, 11 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The Rise of Carbon Markets in East Africa: Opportunities and Challenges</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-rise-of-carbon-markets-in-east/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-rise-of-carbon-markets-in-east/</guid><description>Originally published on Substack.</description><pubDate>Thu, 10 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>The World Is Reordering. Africa Must Be the Centre</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-world-is-reordering-africa-must/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/the-world-is-reordering-africa-must/</guid><description>Originally published on Substack.</description><pubDate>Thu, 10 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Carbon Markets in East Africa</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/carbon-markets-in-east-africa/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/carbon-markets-in-east-africa/</guid><description>My Deep Dive into the Region’s Climate Finance Future</description><pubDate>Fri, 04 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title>Bond Yield rate Vs Bond Coupon rate</title><link>https://legesi.xyz/writing/bond-yield-rate-vs-bond-coupon-rate/</link><guid>https://legesi.xyz/writing/bond-yield-rate-vs-bond-coupon-rate/</guid><description>Bond investing basics</description><pubDate>Fri, 04 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate></item></channel></rss>